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If you’ve noticed prices staying stubbornly high even as tariffs came down, you’re not imagining it, and there’s a reason. The global supply chain is operating in a state of layered disruption right now, and understanding why requires looking beyond a single headline at a time.
On a recent episode of World Lens, host Michelle Evans sat down with Chris Schramm, Director of Solutions at Nexterus, and Justin Lipsky, Founder of First Link, to map out exactly what’s happening and what it means for your business.
The Tariff Whiplash Is Real, But It’s Not Over
When the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, many in the trade industry weren’t entirely surprised. What followed — a flat 10% tariff under Section 122 — was a reduction for most importers sourcing from Asia, where rates had been running 15–20%. That sounds like good news. But both guests were quick to pump the brakes.
The Section 122 tariffs are already facing their own legal challenges. Customs and Border Protection has up to 315 days to “liquidate” an entry — meaning importers may not see any rebates for months, and no one’s closing the books just yet. And with the administration signaling it’s working to rebuild prior tariff levels through new mechanisms, businesses are in what Justin Lipsky calls a “holding pattern.”
“Even if costs are lower now,” Lipsky explained, “companies aren’t going to pass those savings to consumers when they know more changes may be coming in six months.”
The Strait of Hormuz: Not Just an Energy Problem
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February has disrupted roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil, and for businesses that don’t consider themselves energy companies, the effects are no less real.
Schramm laid it out plainly: it’s not just fuel costs. It’s the fact that petroleum is an input in manufacturing processes across industries, from the resins in quartz countertops to the polyester in apparel. Add increased trucking costs, air freight that spiked 400% in the 48 hours after the conflict intensified, and delays in manufacturing timelines, and you have a cascade that hits differently depending on where you sit in the supply chain.
The further downstream you are from manufacturing, the more hands your product passes through before reaching you, the more compounded those cost increases become by the time they land.
Planning Is the Competitive Advantage Nobody Talks About
What separates the businesses weathering this moment from those in full reactive mode? According to both guests, it comes down to one thing: whether you modeled your scenarios before the bomb dropped.
Companies that had already mapped their supply chain workflows, analyzed their data, and built contingency models were able to make rapid decisions when tariffs changed overnight or freight costs exploded. Companies that had been operating on instinct, profitable, yes, but without granular visibility into their own costs, found themselves guessing.
“If you haven’t looked at your entire workflow and identified the impact areas,” Schramm said, “you have no picture of corrective action when something like this happens.”
The practical advice from both guests: talk to your partners. Ask your suppliers where they’re sourcing from. Understand your exposure. And if you haven’t explored a “China plus one” diversification strategy yet, now — while things are relatively stable — is the time.
What Consumers Can Expect
The honest answer: don’t expect prices to drop soon, even if your favorite brand’s costs have just gone down a little. Higher prices are sticky. Companies that absorbed tariff costs for months aren’t rushing to pass on savings; they’re rebuilding margins. And with more tariff uncertainty on the horizon, the incentive to hold prices steady (or even raise them) is strong.
What will move prices? Stability. When businesses can actually see six months ahead, they can plan pricing accordingly, and over time, that benefits everyone.